APH 2006, 64, 159-173:

Uncertainty and variability modelling of chemical exposure through food.

FAM Verdonck, I. Sioen, K. Baert, N. Van Thuyne, M. Bilau, C. Matthys, S. De Henauw, B. De Meulenaer, F. Devlieghere, J. Van Camp, PA Vanrolleghem, P. Van Sprang, W. Verbeke, J. Willems

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, risk assessment, uncertainty

The deterministic approach in current EU risk assessment directives of new and existing substances deals with uncertainty as a technical construct under the format of worst-case assumptions and safety factors as if these ‘certain uncertainties’ can lead to certain risk estimates. In this way, the considered uncertainty and variability in the exposure and risk estimates is made insufficiently transparent which prevents policymakers to properly assess and manage potential chemical risks. Uncertainty and probabilistic analysis is a useful process for risk assessors and managers that quantifies to the extent possible the uncertainty and variability of chemical exposure to humans through food.