APH 2005, 63, 243-257:

Projections of the dependent elderly population by age, sex, and household composition.
Scenarios for Belgium.

A. Abramowska, C. Gourbin, G.Wunsch

Keywords: population projection, elderly, disability

Projections of the dependent elderly population (65+ years old) have been made for Belgium as a whole, by age, sex, and composition of the household, for the period 2005-2050, taking into account the differences in prevalence rates of dependency by household type and possible future declines in these rates. Population projections are made by the Belgian national statistical institute (INS-NIS). The distribution of the population by five-year age groups and sex according to the composition of the household is taken from the Belgian population register. Only three categories are considered: single person private households, other private households, collective households. The latter category has been corrected using the national health insurance data (INAMI-RIZIV). In the absence of adequate data for Belgium, data on the elderly dependency rates by age, sex, and type of household are those of the French HID (Handicap-Invalidité-Dépendance) survey. Concerning trends, two scenarios have been adopted. In the first scenario, dependency rates are assumed to be stationary during the projection period. In the second scenario, rates decline in the future according to past trends observed in France. The projections show that even with declining dependency rates in the future, one can expect a significant increase in the absolute numbers of institutionalized population especially at older ages, for males and for females.