APH 1997, 55, 99-117:

Age-Period-Cohort model: trends in mortality from lung cancer in women, Belgium 1971-1990.

S. Drieskens, P. Quataert, J. Tafforeau, and H. Van Oyen

Keywords: APC-model, Belgium, drift, lung cancer mortality, nested model, Poisson model, trend, woman

Mortality from lung cancer becomes an important cause of death among women.  In Belgium, there is an increase in the age-adjusted mortality rate.  We have examined which impact age, periods and cohorts had on the mortality between 1971 and 1990.

Poisson models (GLIM) were used.  The deviance of the nested models were compared, so that the simplest model still was compatible with the data.  The adequacy of the models was checked using residuals plots.

The "drift" model was considered after the model without temporal variation (the age-only model).  The "drift" model is a regular is a regular trend which cannot be ascribed to either period or cohort influences.  At last the specific effect of cohort or/and period over and above the "drift" was evaluated.