APH 1997, 55, 179-200:

Planning medical manpower: criteria and replacement requirements.

D. Deliège

Keywords: medical manpower, medical manpower planning, requirements
    

Purpose. To assess replacement requirements for medical manpower in the French-speaking Community of Belgium (2004-2023).

Methods.
- Assessing out-flows per age and sex.
- Assessing in-flows on basis of various scenarios about number of future medical 
  degrees and % of specialization.
- Assessing the impact of extra women's share and MDs off duty.

Results.
1. The out-flow will strongly increase from 2012 on: from more than 300 up to more than 500 MDs for the French speaking Community. The extra women's share induce an extra requirement of 6 to 4 %. The expected MDs off duty further increases the replacement needs by an extra 15-20 MDs per year.
2. The % of specialists among the out-flow also evolves; consequently, the % of specialists in in-flow should decrease with time. 
Two criteria could be retained:
- either an impact on stock, proportionally equivalent for GPs and specialists;
- or a stable share of "specialists + younger doctors in training".